Tredje Verdenskrig…må vente

Mens vicepræsident Cheney advarer Iran om “alvorlige konsekvenser” og roser Sovjetunionens brutale udenrigspolitik, mens de nykonservative frygter en ny verdensorden dikteret af Ahmadinejad, mens Rudy Giuliani drømmer sig tilbage til en fredelig tid med ”rationelle” Stalin og Mao, og mens præsident Bush taler om en “Tredje Verdenskrig”, så kan det måske være sin plads med en status:

Bliver der krig mod Iran?

Ikke hvis man skal tro den nyvalgte amerikanske forsvarschef, Mike Mullen. Han siger ganske andre ord end sine chefer. Fra New York Times:

“The new chairman, Adm. Mike Mullen, expressed deep concerns that the long counterinsurgency missions in Iraq and Afghanistan have so consumed the military that the Army and Marine Corps may be unprepared for a high-intensity war against a major adversary.

He rejected the counsel of those who might urge immediate attacks inside Iran to destroy nuclear installations or to stop the flow of explosives that end up as powerful roadside bombs in Iraq or Afghanistan, killing American troops.

With America at war in two Muslim countries, he said, attacking a third Islamic nation in the region “has extraordinary challenges and risks associated with it.” The military option, he said, should be a last resort.”

Også den britiske historiker, Niall Ferguson – forfatter til den brillante War of the World – bidrager med lidt tiltrængt snusfornuft. Fra hans klumme i Los Angeles Times:

“In domestic politics, it’s always a good idea to follow the money. When it comes to grand strategy, however, you need to follow the navy — to be precise, the aircraft carriers that would be the launching platforms for any major air offensive against Iran’s nuclear facilities. To do this, you don’t need to be very skilled at espionage. The U.S. Navy makes the information freely available at http://www.gonavy.jp/CVLocation.html or in the “Around the Navy” column published each week in the Navy Times.The U.S. has 11 active aircraft carriers. Of these, the Kitty Hawk is in port in Japan. The Nimitz and Reagan are in San Diego. The Washington is in Norfolk, Va. The Lincoln and Stennis are in Washington state. And the Eisenhower, Vinson, Roosevelt and Truman are undergoing various sorts of refitting and maintenance checks in the vicinity of “WestLant” (Navy-speak for the western Atlantic). Only one — the Enterprise — is in the Persian Gulf.At present, then, talk of World War III seems to be mere saber-rattling, not serious strategy. U.S. aircraft carriers can move fast, it’s true. The Lincoln’s top speed is in excess of 30 knots (30 nautical miles per hour). And it, along with the Truman, Eisenhower and Nimitz, are said to be “surge ready.” But take a look at the map. It’s a very long way from San Diego to the Strait of Hormuz. Even from Norfolk, it takes 17.5 days for an aircraft carrier group to reach Bahrain. If you were Ahmadinejad, how worried would you be?”